Looking to the stars

NNNOOOOOO!

Idiot

Have to date resisted any thoughts of wondering what time I might get away with at IM, and equally, have resisted any temptation to find the answer in Excel. Only goal has been “just stay solid all day”. But as I was driving home yesterday I started wondering – what might be possible?

And whenever a life-problem arises for which no possible answer can otherwise be found,  – one turns to Excel.

METHOD

The best indicator of how well anyone will go in a long event is how well they have done over the next longest distance in the past.

For me this is the two x HIMs. Canberra 2011 (Pretty ordinary result – wouldn’t like to do worse at IM) / Port Mac 2006 (Not bad result – probably not capable of doing better)

Canberra Half - Finished 39%  of the way through the 45-49AG field.

Port Mac HIM – Finished 25% of the way through the 40-44AG field

This establishes a reasonable upper and lower boundary for AG outcomes. Hence apply those stats to the IM results from last year for my age group.

RESULTS

39% on last year’s Port IM 45-49 = 11:51

25% on last year’s Port IM 45-49 = 11:21

Baring an episode of my cracking like an egg (certainly possible given the feeble stability of my emotional state) OR somehow pulling one out of my freckle, the numbers above would seem like a reasonable boundary of outcomes.

FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

By the end of next week I will have come up with an alternative method that may, or may not, rely on astrological markers for improved accuracy.

In the mean time – will try and refocus on “just stay solid”

W